What is the “Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Iran invades Kuwait by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 2.1¢ and No at 97.9¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 2.1% for Yes and 97.9% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($8.65K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($36.16K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 30 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 85.6% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 28, 12:02 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/iran-invades-kuwait-byptptpt-20260720015031544) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? Polymarket Odds

Market referenceiran-invades-kuwait-by-october-31Updated 1m ago

geopoliticsActive

Closes Nov 1, 2026 UTCirankuwait

Yes

2.1%

97.9%

Buy Yes 2.1¢Buy No 97.9¢

24h Volume

$8.7K

Liquidity

$36.2K

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Yes price

2.1¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

2.1%

97.9%

24h volume

$8.65K

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 2.1¢

Open in terminal$8.65K 24h vol

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

just now

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

2.8%

Observed

1m ago

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

2.1%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

86%

Yes / No shares

4.17K / 4.17K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

Wallets

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
thoodr	No	2.28K	95.4%	$2.28K
Violet Vector B233	Yes	887.64	1.0%	$887.64	Sep 19, 11:23 PM UTC

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

Topic room

Every related market on one live board

Iran–Israel oddsWhat are the odds of war between Israel and Iran?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Iran invades Kuwait by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 2.1¢ and No at 97.9¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 2.1% for Yes and 97.9% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($8.65K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($36.16K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

thoodr

2.28K

95.4%

$2.28K

Violet Vector B233

Yes

887.64

1.0%

$887.64

Sep 19, 11:23 PM UTC

Trader	Current holding value
thoodr	$2.24K
Talophex	$489.5
Goopster	$446.42
NeevS	$264.33
tilchi	$223.06
Flamboyant-Warming	$170.81
agreebera	$97.9
baby009	$58.74
lionone1	$48.31
create6666	$29.37
Violet Vector B233	$18.64
Haradwaith	$18.04