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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 12.3K | $0.752 | $10.76K | +$1.51K |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 278 | $0.840 | $233.52 | 16d ago |
 |
| No |
| 3.28K |
| $0.930 |
| $3.24K |
| +$188.6 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | 3.36K | $0.910 | $3.14K | +$84 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? | No | 2.38K | $0.918 | $2.33K | +$146.51 |
 Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | No | 1.92K | $0.908 | $1.74K | -$5.65 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | 1.5K | $0.880 | $1.43K | +$112.76 |
 Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | No | 1.36K | $0.810 | $1.12K | +$20.5 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 799.59 | $0.779 | $678.45 | +$55.7 |
 Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026? | No | 591.54 | $0.886 | $582.37 | +$58.27 |
 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | No | 888 | $0.590 | $581.64 | +$57.72 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | No | 557.4 | $0.900 | $541.51 | +$39.85 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 588 | $0.835 | $502.74 | +$11.92 |
 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 451.86 | $0.700 | $327.6 | +$11.3 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | No | 329.99 | $0.790 | $287.09 | +$26.4 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 277.55 | $0.903 | $259.51 | +$8.97 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | No | 270 | $0.950 | $259.07 | +$2.57 |
 Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | Yes | 203.1 | $0.836 | $173.96 | +$4.09 |
 Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 759.77 | $0.508 | $87.37 | -$298.41 |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? | Yes | 318.86 | $0.743 | $9.73 | -$227.15 |
 Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026? | No | 8 | $0.860 | $6.8 | -$0.08 |
| sell |
| 35 |
| $0.992 |
| $34.72 |
| 16d ago |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?No | sell | 200 | $0.994 | $198.7 | 16d ago |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?No | buy | 329.99 | $0.790 | $260.69 | 21d ago |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?No | buy | 270 | $0.950 | $256.5 | 21d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 310 | $0.830 | $257.3 | 21d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No | sell | 832.62 | $0.930 | $774.34 | 21d ago |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 451.86 | $0.700 | $316.3 | 27d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No | buy | 3.36K | $0.910 | $3.06K | 27d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | sell | 3.06K | $0.989 | $3.02K | 27d ago |
 Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No | buy | 50.94 | $0.750 | $38.21 | 29d ago |
 Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Yes | buy | 305.13 | $0.750 | $228.85 | 29d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | sell | 138 | $0.983 | $135.65 | 29d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | sell | 136 | $0.983 | $133.69 | 29d ago |
 Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes | buy | 272 | $0.958 | $260.58 | 29d ago |
| Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes | buy | 320 | $0.955 | $305.6 | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?No | buy | 205.39 | $0.900 | $184.8 | Aug 8, 2026 |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?Yes | buy | 118.86 | $0.557 | $66.26 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes | buy | 310 | $0.926 | $286.95 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?Yes | buy | 21 | $0.930 | $19.53 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes | buy | 498.12 | $0.905 | $450.8 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No | buy | 588 | $0.590 | $346.92 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.925 | $55.5 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes | buy | 35 | $0.923 | $32.31 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No | buy | 200 | $0.590 | $118 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.915 | $91.5 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes | buy | 59 | $0.913 | $53.87 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?No | buy | 1.1K | $0.930 | $1.02K | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No | sell | 1.11K | $0.910 | $1.01K | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No | buy | 430.15 | $0.780 | $335.52 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?No | buy | 1.1K | $0.930 | $1.02K | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No | sell | 900 | $0.910 | $819 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?No | buy | 1.08K | $0.930 | $1K | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No | sell | 1.1K | $0.910 | $1K | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No | sell | 1.41K | $0.910 | $1.28K | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No | sell | 1.88K | $0.910 | $1.71K | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.740 | $148 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?Yes | buy | 182.1 | $0.826 | $150.33 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No | buy | 660 | $0.760 | $501.6 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?No | sell | 501 | $0.999 | $500.5 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?No | sell | 93 | $0.999 | $92.91 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No | buy | 206.1 | $0.750 | $154.58 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?No | sell | 13 | $0.999 | $12.99 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No | buy | 640.3 | $0.778 | $498.14 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?No | sell | 501 | $0.999 | $500.5 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?No | sell | 63 | $0.998 | $62.87 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No | buy | 700 | $0.840 | $588 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?No | sell | 57 | $0.998 | $56.89 | Jul 30, 2026 |
 Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No | buy | 65.1 | $0.841 | $54.75 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?No | sell | 14 | $0.998 | $13.97 | Jul 30, 2026 |