Analytics
Yes is at 15%, down 21 points from 35.5% when the market opened on 2 Jun 2026.
Across the 141 daily closes on record from 2 Jun 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37% on 3 Jun 2026 and the lowest 9% on 5 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13%; a month before, 15.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 18% on 4 Jun 2026.
$6.57K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $482.61, with a 8.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 81 trades, $1.13K bought Yes and $547.22 bought No.
The largest Yes position is 676767676767 with 4.4K shares; the largest No position is Gaditima with 4.3K. Ten wallets hold 96.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 141 points, 2 Jun 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 35.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 15.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 676767676767 | Yes | 4.44K |
| Gaditima | No | 4.25K |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 388.38 |
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/blue-origin-new-glenn-launch-in-2026
| alpheclabs |
| No |
| 243.66 |
| thursdays | No | 201.58 |
| bananabreakfast | No | 148.58 |
| Ivory Raven B782 | Yes | 110.5 |
| randomWalkingShrimp | No | 94.98 |
| Royal Harbor 217A | Yes | 70.74 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 54.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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