Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 82.5%. Yes opened at 76.5% on 1 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 59 daily closes on record from 1 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, the highest close was 95.9% on 11 Aug 2026 and the lowest 71% on 18 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 71% on 18 Sep 2026. $68.67K traded over the market's life.
65 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 59 points, 1 Aug 2026 – 28 Sep 2026, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | 76.5% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 82.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Humble-Prey | No | 2.39K |
| nellojello | No | 1.79K |
| UnscheduledNap | No | 1.27K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-14
| No |
| 1.2K |
| beeff | No | 899.05 |
| Hiohigs | No | 768 |
| Mr.Frog🐸 | No | 721.94 |
| Winged-Holder | No | 427.66 |
| jackli003 | No | 200 |
| Slowbucks | No | 139.99 |
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