Analytics
Yes is at 14.5%, down 28 points from 42% when the market opened on 14 May 2026.
Across the 166 daily closes on record from 14 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 16 May 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 27 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 18%; a month before, 18.5%. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 17% on 17 May 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?”.
$2.1K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $335.36K since listing. The order book holds $23.99K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $9.38K bought Yes and $23.08K bought No; the largest was a $2.89K buy of No at 86.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Optimus- with 9.2K shares; the largest No position is MaxEnt with 5.7K. Ten wallets hold 37.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 166 points, 14 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 May 2026 | 42.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30
| MaxEnt |
| No |
| 5.74K |
| rkreddyzoomin | No | 5.57K |
| troim | Yes | 5K |
| Folletin | No | 4.51K |
| DualDelta | Yes | 4.47K |
| streetbrowser | Yes | 4.42K |
| Utoya | No | 4K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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