Analytics
Yes is at 69.5%, up 13 points from 56.5% when the market opened on 15 Aug 2026.
Across the 73 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 70.5% on 21 Oct 2026 and the lowest 36.5% on 22 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 70.5%; a month before, 64.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 36.5% on 22 Aug 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?”.
$2.93K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $86.21K since listing. The order book holds $25.17K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $16.95K bought Yes and $9.93K bought No; the largest was a $2.26K buy of Yes at 66.5¢.
The largest Yes position is Optimus- with 4.7K shares; the largest No position is DerDon with 6.1K. Ten wallets hold 57.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 73 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 56.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 69.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DerDon | No | 6.12K |
| Optimus- | Yes | 4.74K |
| 0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13 | Yes | 4.37K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30
| Mecky | No | 4.08K |
| Indigo Kestrel 34B2 | No | 3.72K |
| jadebasilisk | No | 3.56K |
| streetbrowser | Yes | 3.5K |
| Stonktrader | Yes | 3.41K |
| linsen | No | 2.87K |
| Fulgurator | Yes | 2.37K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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