Analytics
Yes is at 7%, down 49 points from 55.5% when the market opened on 4 Feb 2026.
Across the 237 daily closes on record from 4 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67.5% on 6 Feb 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 6 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7%; a month before, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 51% on 28 Feb 2026.
$406.14 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.09M since listing. The order book holds $15.46K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.68K bought Yes and $45.02K bought No; the largest was a $1.4K buy of No at 83.9¢.
The largest Yes position is tetrose with 2.7K shares; the largest No position is chartreuseverte with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 55.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 237 points, 4 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2026 | 55.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 7.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tetrose | Yes | 2.74K |
| chartreuseverte | No | 1.92K |
| Velvety-Coliseum | Yes | 1.85K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31
| jm98 |
| Yes |
| 1.72K |
| Sore-Casino | No | 1.42K |
| Aleksei-Ivanovich | No | 1.35K |
| GrokEnjoyer | Yes | 1.11K |
| Quarrelsome-Branch | Yes | 1.05K |
| nope3050 | No | 979.78 |
| PROPHET.NOTES | Yes | 819.44 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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