Latest trade
Jul 14, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 9:25 PM UTC.
Analytics
greatAmateurGuesser is down $71.19 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-09-16 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Jul 14, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 9:25 PM UTC.
$1.01 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 43 markets; 56.0% were buys. They run from May 12, 2026 UTC to Jul 14, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 8.93 | $0.560 | $6.03 | +$1.03 |
|
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US strike on Colombia by December 31?No | sell | 1.2 | $0.840 | $1.01 | Jul 14, 2026 UTC |
 |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-09-16 20:02 UTC
Polymarket public position response
6 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-23 21:25 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-23 21:25 UTC
polymarket positions
52 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-09-16 20:02 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $93.54 and losing ones cost $118.57 across the latest 50 settled positions. 52% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $18.66 on “Fed rate hike in 2026?” (Yes); the largest loss, $20 on “Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 14 Jul 2026. It has traded 94 markets. Its open positions are worth $17.65 across 6 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 5.89 |
| $0.849 |
| $5.39 |
| +$0.39 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 20.08 | $0.249 | $2.92 | -$2.08 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 27.03 | $0.185 | $2.57 | -$2.43 |
 Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | Yes | 14.29 | $0.350 | $0.71 | -$4.29 |
 Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 4 | $0.250 | $0.03 | -$0.97 |
| sell |
| 7.69 |
| $0.830 |
| $6.38 |
| Jun 24, 2026 UTC |
 Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes | sell | 17.85 | $0.310 | $5.53 | Jun 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes | sell | 22.64 | $0.297 | $6.72 | Jun 24, 2026 UTC |
 California voter ID referendum passes?Yes | sell | 20.83 | $0.510 | $10.61 | Jun 24, 2026 UTC |
 Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes | sell | 41.66 | $0.580 | $24.16 | Jun 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | buy | 14.82 | $0.337 | $5 | Jun 20, 2026 UTC |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 7.46 | $0.946 | $7.06 | Jun 17, 2026 UTC |
 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes | sell | 10.63 | $0.984 | $10.46 | Jun 17, 2026 UTC |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes | sell | 5.68 | $0.967 | $5.49 | Jun 14, 2026 UTC |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?No | sell | 1.01 | $0.993 | $1 | Jun 6, 2026 UTC |
 Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No | sell | 1.09 | $0.939 | $1.02 | Jun 6, 2026 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes | sell | 5.17 | $0.992 | $5.13 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes | sell | 8.07 | $0.976 | $7.88 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No | sell | 6.33 | $0.973 | $6.16 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No | sell | 6.32 | $0.990 | $6.26 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | sell | 5.81 | $0.985 | $5.72 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?No | sell | 1.02 | $0.997 | $1.02 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
 Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No | sell | 1.36 | $0.981 | $1.33 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?No | sell | 1.75 | $0.956 | $1.67 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?No | sell | 1 | $0.998 | $1 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?No | sell | 1.05 | $0.995 | $1.04 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?No | sell | 1.03 | $0.964 | $0.99 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump say "Wind" this week?No | buy | 1.25 | $0.800 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?No | buy | 1.39 | $0.720 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?No | buy | 1.19 | $0.840 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?Yes | buy | 1.22 | $0.820 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes | buy | 5.18 | $0.966 | $5 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes | buy | 5.68 | $0.880 | $5 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | buy | 5.81 | $0.860 | $5 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
 Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 14?Yes | buy | 96.04 | $0.010 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
 Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 14?Yes | buy | 403.04 | $0.002 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
 Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on May 14?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.005 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
 Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 14?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 14?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on May 14?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
 Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 14?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 14?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | May 14, 2026 UTC |
 Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No | buy | 1.82 | $0.549 | $1 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
 Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?No | buy | 1.35 | $0.740 | $1 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31?No | buy | 1.2 | $0.830 | $1 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.02 | $0.981 | $1 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?No | buy | 1.15 | $0.870 | $1 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.966 | $1 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?No | buy | 1.16 | $0.860 | $1 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.965 | $1 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?No | buy | 1.75 | $0.570 | $1 | May 12, 2026 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.