
Yes is at 4.5%, down 45 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 30 Dec 2025.
Across the 279 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 63% on 1 Jan 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 18 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 18% on 1 Oct 2026.
$351.77K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.03K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.24K bought Yes and $5.71K bought No; the largest was a $1.9K buy of No at 78.2¢.
The largest Yes position is DominuxLux with 917 shares; the largest No position is johnnyA with 2.6K. Ten wallets hold 52.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 279 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 49.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| johnnyA | No | 2.62K |
| DominuxLux | Yes | 917.24 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 895.19 |
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-category-4-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027
| Gennedy |
| Yes |
| 591.46 |
| Guessingkbn-wx | Yes | 581.56 |
| BeefSlayer | No | 523.59 |
| Herald-PS | Yes | 489.88 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 367.95 |
| gardens | Yes | 340 |
| MrMarket | Yes | 312.35 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page