Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“California voter ID referendum passes?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Nov 4, 2026 UTC. As of Oct 1, 9:31 PM UTC, Yes trades at 30.0¢, a 30.0% implied chance, $104.96 traded in the last 24 hours, $437.34 resting in the order book, a 6.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 185 daily price points from Mar 17, 2026 UTC to Oct 1, 2026 UTC (Yes between 16.5% and 67.0%); 48 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 80.9% of the loaded shares; 217 recent public fills from 94 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 185 points · 17 Mar 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Mar 2026 | 29.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 30.0% |
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”. If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/california-voter-id-referendum-passes
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 376.72 |
| Nobody23041 | No | 279.4 |
| DoLess | Yes | 275.13 |
| peepeepooppoop | Yes | 200.01 |
| cosmicsteaks | Yes | 191 |
| Polyticks | Yes | 168.18 |
| AJSV | No | 136.96 |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 130.96 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
