Analytics
Yes is at 50%, up 20 points from 30.5% when the market opened on 1 Jan 2026.
Across the 283 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 68.5% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 18.5% on 12 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 68.5%; a month before, 48.5%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 61.5% on 22 Sep 2026.
14–16 is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?”, ahead of 17–19 at 41.5%.
$68.7 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $190.09K since listing. The order book holds $419.09, with a 12.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.52K bought Yes and $3.45K bought No; the largest was a $1.02K buy of No at 73.0¢.
The largest Yes position is gopfan2 with 8.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 24.9K. Ten wallets hold 91.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 283 points, 1 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | 30.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 24.85K |
| gopfan2 | Yes | 8.7K |
| DEGENKHAN | Yes | 6.69K |
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-7pt0-or-above-earthquakes-in-2026
| Jade Quasar D7A7 |
| Yes |
| 5.01K |
| 0x8712 | Yes | 1K |
| babydogebox | No | 933 |
| aouaouaou | Yes | 509.38 |
| Gennedy | Yes | 438.68 |
| tigerz | Yes | 394.87 |
| treadmill4727 | Yes | 212.53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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