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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.010 | $0.98 | Mar 23, 2025 |
|
| sell |
| 50 |
| $0.017 |
| $0.85 |
| Mar 23, 2025 |
 Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?Yes | sell | 112.14 | $0.180 | $20.19 | Mar 23, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?Yes | sell | 199.99 | $0.200 | $40 | Mar 23, 2025 |
 Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year?Yes | sell | 69.67 | $0.750 | $52.25 | Mar 23, 2025 |
 AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.600 | $60.04 | Mar 23, 2025 |
 Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?Yes | sell | 530 | $0.439 | $232.48 | Mar 23, 2025 |
 Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | sell | 860.12 | $0.414 | $356.09 | Mar 23, 2025 |
 Will DeepSeek be #1 model before April?Yes | buy | 357.61 | $0.038 | $13.59 | Mar 11, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?Yes | sell | 63.56 | $0.935 | $59.43 | Mar 10, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?No | sell | 50 | $0.407 | $20.36 | Mar 10, 2025 |
 Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31?Yes | sell | 2K | $0.005 | $10.01 | Mar 10, 2025 |
 DeepSeek R2 released before May?No | sell | 99.99 | $0.074 | $7.38 | Mar 10, 2025 |
 Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.240 | $24 | Mar 10, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.340 | $34 | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?No | sell | 300 | $0.326 | $97.8 | Mar 10, 2025 |
 Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?Yes | sell | 1K | $0.110 | $110 | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?Yes | sell | 1.17K | $0.168 | $196.4 | Mar 10, 2025 |
 Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.153 | $2.3 | Feb 25, 2025 |
 Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | sell | 12.15 | $0.800 | $9.72 | Feb 25, 2025 |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?Yes | sell | 6 | $0.290 | $1.74 | Feb 24, 2025 |
 Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 199.99 | $0.003 | $0.6 | Feb 24, 2025 |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?No | buy | 25 | $0.450 | $11.25 | Feb 24, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.400 | $40 | Feb 24, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?No | sell | 6.52 | $0.137 | $0.89 | Feb 23, 2025 |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | sell | 944.82 | $0.003 | $2.83 | Feb 23, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | sell | 207.39 | $0.022 | $4.56 | Feb 23, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.460 | $11.5 | Feb 23, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 271 | $0.520 | $140.92 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.510 | $10.2 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.340 | $3.4 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | buy | 791.26 | $0.070 | $55.39 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.068 | $34 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.065 | $6.5 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | buy | 105 | $0.064 | $6.72 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.062 | $1.24 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.380 | $38 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.047 | $0.47 | Feb 20, 2025 |
 Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | sell | 602.94 | $0.004 | $2.41 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | sell | 250 | $0.009 | $2.25 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?No | buy | 5 | $0.162 | $0.81 | Feb 20, 2025 |
 Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.960 | $192 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year?Yes | buy | 60.1 | $0.640 | $38.46 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year?Yes | buy | 6.26 | $0.630 | $3.94 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.660 | $66 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.440 | $17.6 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 604.21 | $0.007 | $4.23 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | buy | 372.5 | $0.006 | $2.24 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?No | buy | 10 | $0.194 | $1.94 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?No | buy | 77.7 | $0.194 | $15.07 | Feb 19, 2025 |