Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 52% on 21 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 21 Feb 2025 to 31 Mar 2025, the highest close was 52% on 21 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 30 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 23% on 13 Mar 2025. $721.15K traded over the market's life.
60 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 1, 5:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 21 Feb 2025 – 31 Mar 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2025 | 52.0% |
| 31 Mar 2025 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 186.26K |
| Agilord | Yes | 12.05K |
| Franksciberras | Yes | 2.35K |
| Siziriv | Yes | 1.54K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march
| Alexcator | Yes | 1.04K |
| Rabota59 | Yes | 1K |
| Comfortable-Container | Yes | 741.27 |
| Silky-Cricketer | Yes | 625 |
| hvre | Yes | 583.28 |
| pepes27 | Yes | 435.82 |
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