Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 25 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 67 daily closes on record from 25 Jan 2025 to 1 Apr 2025, the highest close was 22.5% on 28 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 22.5% on 28 Jan 2025. $64.66K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 6:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 67 points, 25 Jan 2025 – 1 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2025 | 13.5% |
| 1 Apr 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lqbeijing | Yes | 3.67K |
| vin69 | Yes | 2.36K |
| MirkoMaverick | Yes | 1.87K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any DeepSeek model has the highest Arena Score on the lmarena.ai Leaderboard at any point between January 23 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable before this market's resolution date, another source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-deepseek-be-1-model-before-april
| Yes |
| 640.72 |
| jsadhfkj8273428 | Yes | 563.39 |
| DOGEJZ | Yes | 469.57 |
| yanivroth | Yes | 429.96 |
| 0xgamba | Yes | 369.78 |
| Damaged-Jumper | Yes | 311.67 |
| Disastrous-Spite | Yes | 118.85 |
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