Alibaba AI model better than DeepSeek before March?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$33.3K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Mar 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 30 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 31 daily closes on record from 30 Jan 2025 to 1 Mar 2025, the highest close was 18% on 31 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Mar 2025. $33.3K traded over the market's life.

10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 6:24 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 30 Jan 2025 – 1 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Jan 2025	14.5%
1 Mar 2025	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Relieved-Substance	Yes	418.95
Aysezero	Yes	274.88
doss88	Yes	217.89
axureman	No	1.04

10 of 10 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model by Alibaba has a higher arena score than all DeepSeek models on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) at any point by February 28, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the arena score must be higher - if it ties with the best DeepSeek arena score it will not count. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.