Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?

Resolved

Yes, settled Mar 3, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$56.9K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 3, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 3 Mar 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 81.5%. Yes opened at 85% on 28 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2025 to 3 Mar 2025, the highest close was 93% on 19 Feb 2025 and the lowest 70% on 29 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 73% on 15 Feb 2025. $56.89K traded over the market's life.

12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 26, 6:47 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 28 Jan 2025 – 3 Mar 2025, chart shows 60%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Jan 2025	85.0%
3 Mar 2025	81.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
ix123	No	1.97K
ParlayR	No	334.97
Crimson Oracle FD4D	No	55.55
Sophisticated-Thunderstorm	No	52.63

10 of 12 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed modelI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.