Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 66% on 6 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 100% on 28 Mar 2026 and the low 51.5% on 11 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 69% on 12 Nov 2025. $19.5K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 21, 7:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 138 points · 6 Nov 2025 – 28 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 66.0% |
| 28 Mar 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MrMarket | No | 515.15 |
| Moribundus | No | 382.14 |
| Swift Orbit C57F | No | 327 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026
| Barryvl | No | 300 |
| yoyo22 | No | 76.92 |
| pepeFight | No | 72.32 |
| paas2 | No | 60 |
| Humiliating-Mineral | No | 40.25 |
| day21 | Yes | 5.64 |
| Hinshaw | No | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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