Analytics
Paper trading
Yes is at 4.5%, down 16 points from 20.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
The high was 50% on 8 Nov 2025 and the low 4% on 13 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 4.5%; a month ago, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 49.5% on 7 Nov 2025.
30% ranks fourth of the 6 outcomes in “How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?”. 36% leads at 65%; 35% is at 27%.
$16.16K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $4.33K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 215 trades, $1.03K bought Yes and $1.68K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Powerful-Table with 4.6K shares; the largest No position is MrMarket with 5.3K. Ten wallets hold 86.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Jan 2027, 83 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 14, 2:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 319 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 14 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 20.5% |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 4.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MrMarket | No | 5.35K |
| Powerful-Table | Yes | 4.6K |
| DerDon | No | 2.12K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Resolution source: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026
| RadioCCOD |
| Yes |
| 1.28K |
| gesst | No | 929.5 |
| Disastrous-Toothpaste | Yes | 713.23 |
| cocococococo | Yes | 657.15 |
| Moribundus | No | 621.05 |
| SpyVsSpy | Yes | 402.49 |
| Naudway | Yes | 200 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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