Analytics
Yes is at 7.8%, down 5.2 points from 13% when the market opened on 2 Dec 2025.
Across the 304 daily closes on record from 2 Dec 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 36.7% on 18 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.3% on 9 Dec 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 7.2%; a month before, 6.2%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 26% on 12 Dec 2025.
It is one of 9 markets under “Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?”.
$1.06K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $6.53M since listing. The order book holds $4.38K, with a 2.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $536.14 bought Yes and $4.47K bought No; the largest was a $1.62K buy of No at 95.7¢.
The largest Yes position is eNakeVets with 3.9K shares; the largest No position is AvishaiBass with 5.5K. Ten wallets hold 59.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 304 points, 2 Dec 2025 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Dec 2025 | 13.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 7.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AvishaiBass | No | 5.46K |
| eNakeVets | Yes | 3.94K |
| gmeowcl | No | 2.39K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026
| smap |
| Yes |
| 1.58K |
| Unlucky-Anywhere-Destruction | Yes | 1.19K |
| Gaujmalietis | No | 893.35 |
| TreepleA | Yes | 811.04 |
| 3zekiel | No | 780 |
| St3f | No | 737.9 |
| studmuffin6969 | Yes | 730.78 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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