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“Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?” is a world prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 1, 2027 UTC. As of Sep 25, 2:27 PM UTC, Yes trades at 0.3¢, a 0.3% implied chance, $130.95K traded in the last 24 hours, $11.39K resting in the order book, a 0.4% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 297 daily price points from Nov 14, 2025 UTC to Sep 25, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 10.5%); 63 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 83.7% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 212 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 297 points · 14 Nov 2025 – 25 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 6.0% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 0.3% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 9.6K |
| nufonehudis67 | Yes | 1.39K |
| Crazy-Hybridization | Yes |
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 1.36K |
| SaturnStormCube | Yes | 965.07 |
| paddaa | Yes | 869.01 |
| wing1234 | Yes | 702.6 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 555.69 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 446.69 |
| ACara | Yes | 388.57 |
| Bikesarethebest | Yes | 319 |