Analytics
Yes is at 31.9%, up 26 points from 5.5% when the market opened on 14 Nov 2025.
Across the 324 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 27 Oct 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 35.7% on 3 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 30 Dec 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 32.8%; a month before, 30%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 27.8% on 17 May 2026.
9 ranks second of the 8 outcomes in “How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?”. 8 leads at 60.3%; 10 is at 4.3%.
$36 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $123.72K since listing. The order book holds $5.05K, with a 7.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $8.2K bought Yes and $12.02K bought No; the largest was a $3.74K buy of No at 62.3¢.
The largest Yes position is avon5 with 1.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 10K. Ten wallets hold 81.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 324 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 5.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 31.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 9.95K |
| avon5 | Yes | 1.86K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1.58K |
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026
| RememberAmalek |
| Yes |
| 1.3K |
| Tenebrus7 | Yes | 1.16K |
| paddaa | Yes | 1.12K |
| siick | No | 838.24 |
| buoys | Yes | 542.81 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 454.3 |
| crypto-basenji | Yes | 422.78 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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