Analytics
Yes is at 6.3%, down 33 points from 39% when the market opened on 4 Sep 2026.
Across the 49 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 39.5% on 5 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2.4% on 21 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13.9%; a month before, 11.1%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 14.5% on 8 Sep 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?”.
$54.44K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.52K, with a 3.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 431 trades, $3.73K bought Yes and $10.27K bought No; the largest was a $1.45K buy of No at 87.8¢.
The largest Yes position is bigdickprick with 4.5K shares; the largest No position is XAE12Archangel with 3.5K. Ten wallets hold 78.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 39.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 6.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bigdickprick | Yes | 4.55K |
| XAE12Archangel | No | 3.49K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 2.2K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-30-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027
| ourdemocracy2 | No | 1.5K |
| NeonVector | Yes | 1.04K |
| t4zuwbigfjnrs | No | 1K |
| delphilo | Yes | 711.11 |
| OrbitSugarFree | No | 702.37 |
| nonkenny90 | No | 665 |
| stanmktmaker | Yes | 581.66 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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