Analytics
Yes is at 21%, down 3.5 points from 24.5% when the market opened on 24 Sep 2026.
The high was 47% on 8 Oct 2026 and the low 13% on 25 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 47%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 42% on 6 Oct 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?”.
$972.28 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $29.76K since listing. The order book holds $1.8K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 324 trades, $3.11K bought Yes and $6.4K bought No; the largest was a $1.34K buy of No at 86.6¢.
The largest Yes position is delphilo with 1K shares; the largest No position is ArmageddonRewardsBilly with 2.8K. Ten wallets hold 78.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 77 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 15, 9:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 24 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 24.5% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 21.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 2.8K |
| delphilo | Yes | 1K |
| k7X9mP2qW4 | Yes | 894 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-30-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027
| XAE12Archangel |
| No |
| 753.45 |
| Violet Vector B233 | No | 733.96 |
| Vagabund97 | Yes | 590.75 |
| OrbitSugarFree | No | 563.6 |
| HDGB | Yes | 457.28 |
| NeonVector | Yes | 311.28 |
| 0xreliqua | Yes | 252 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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