Analytics
Yes is at 44%, up 28 points from 16.5% when the market opened on 27 Feb 2026.
Across the 217 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52.5% on 2 May 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 27 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 43%; a month before, 41%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 24.5% on 2 Oct 2026.
800–900B is the favourite of the 8 outcomes in “US Trade Deficit in 2026?”, ahead of 700–800B at 21%.
$1.96K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $502.62, with a 36.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 73 trades, $325.81 bought Yes and $291.91 bought No.
The largest Yes position is S888 with 264 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 466. Ten wallets hold 91.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 May 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 217 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 16.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 44.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 466.21 |
| S888 | Yes | 264.24 |
| bulbnbob | No | 102.63 |
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-trade-deficit-in-2026
| Kidaraknin |
| Yes |
| 100.92 |
| yueyueyn | Yes | 99.7 |
| awgraewrfa | Yes | 80.81 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 74.93 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 20 |
| jesus-rooster | Yes | 20 |
| t57vk6tx8rwb | No | 15.84 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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