Analytics
Yes is at 21%, up 3 points from 18% when the market opened on 27 Feb 2026.
The high was 49% on 5 Sep 2026 and the low 7% on 27 May 2026. A week ago Yes was at 21%; a month ago, 40.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 49% on 5 Sep 2026.
700–800B ranks second of the 8 outcomes in “US Trade Deficit in 2026?”. 800–900B leads at 46%; 900B–1T is at 14%.
$724.65 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $402.69, with a 12.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 59 trades, $43.49 bought Yes and $281.97 bought No.
The largest Yes position is S888 with 141 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 466. Ten wallets hold 93.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 May 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 15, 2:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 199 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 18.0% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 21.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 466.21 |
| S888 | Yes | 140.52 |
| awgraewrfa | Yes | 80.81 |
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-trade-deficit-in-2026
| alidf |
| Yes |
| 54.57 |
| CompulsiveGambler | Yes | 52.72 |
| AJSV | Yes | 44.99 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 33.48 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 20 |
| t57vk6tx8rwb | No | 15.89 |
| 52adsa | Yes | 14.54 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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