Analytics
Yes is at 2.9%, down 42 points from 45% when the market opened on 27 Feb 2026.
The high was 45% on 27 Feb 2026 and the low 2.9% on 6 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 3.5%; a month ago, 3.2%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 16.5% on 28 Feb 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “US Trade Deficit in 2026?”.
$38 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $16.9K since listing. The order book holds $344.29, with a 1.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 95 trades, $80.77 bought Yes and $7.87K bought No; the largest was a $7.04K buy of No at 94.0¢.
The largest Yes position is alidf with 167 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 466. Ten wallets hold 79.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 May 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 6, 1:48 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 215 points · 27 Feb 2026 – 6 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 45.0% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 466.21 |
| S888 | No | 245.49 |
| alidf | Yes | 166.54 |
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-trade-deficit-in-2026
| tinman2 |
| No |
| 100 |
| CompulsiveGambler | Yes | 95.69 |
| awgraewrfa | Yes | 80.81 |
| MarcusAureliusII | Yes | 61.31 |
| datasurfer | Yes | 60 |
| Angry-Sweater | Yes | 58.42 |
| AJSV | Yes | 54.21 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
