Analytics
Yes is at 2.5%, down 24 points from 26.5% when the market opened on 27 Jun 2026.
Across the 120 daily closes on record from 27 Jun 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 26.5% on 27 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.6%; a month before, 4.8%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 4.9% on 28 Jun 2026.
Santiago Abascal ranks third of the 16 outcomes in “Next Prime Minister of Spain?”. Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads at 81.5%; Pedro Sánchez is at 13.3%.
$2.13K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $298.65K since listing. The order book holds $89.75K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.04K bought Yes and $43.17K bought No; the largest was a $5.97K buy of No at 98.5¢.
The largest Yes position is aneale014 with 55.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 152.7K. Ten wallets hold 85.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Mar 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 120 points, 27 Jun 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2026 | 26.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 2.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 152.73K |
| aneale014 | Yes | 55.1K |
| AGUILA3300 | Yes | 36.39K |
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-spain-20260625005215443
4 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| moneymaker56 |
| Yes |
| 10.31K |
| WSmovin | Yes | 9.55K |
| knrad | No | 9.54K |
| charlito11 | Yes | 5K |
| MaxEnt | Yes | 5K |
| YiqStake10 | Yes | 4.69K |
| peritaloco6 | Yes | 4.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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