Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.5%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 12 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 225 daily closes on record from 12 Feb 2026 to 5 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.5% on 5 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.1% on 6 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 63 points up, to 99.5% on 5 Oct 2026. $229.03K traded over the market's life.
110 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 225 points, 12 Feb 2026 – 5 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2026 | 48.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 99.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 67.62K |
| conherence | No | 5.56K |
| Devoted-Route | No | 2.61K |
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| neutralwave23 | No | 1.46K |
| Lunar Vector 480C | No | 1.4K |
| efflo-polka | No | 1.26K |
| lissartter | No | 786.47 |
| bZk0Uo | No | 733.55 |
| kalimoto | No | 550.49 |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse | No | 549.96 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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