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“Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in September?” is a economy prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Core CPI YoY - September 2026”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Oct 15, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 25, 2:02 AM UTC, Yes trades at 12.5¢, a 12.5% implied chance, $406.84 traded in the last 24 hours, $660 resting in the order book, a 3.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 15 daily price points from Sep 12, 2026 UTC to Sep 25, 2026 UTC (Yes between 12.5% and 24.5%); 16 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 99.6% of the loaded shares; 136 recent public fills from 56 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 15 points · 12 Sep 2026 – 25 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 10%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | 16.0% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 12.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| podairpod | Yes | 2.43K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.83K |
| thursdays | No |
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/core-cpi-yoy-september-2026
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 533 |
| Haradwaith | No | 108.13 |
| AJSV | Yes | 44.5 |
| cigarettes | No | 40 |
| pppnn | No | 31.65 |
| new-account-test222 | Yes | 27 |
| big-bird1 | Yes | 18.69 |
| nana130299 | Yes | 11.23 |