Analytics
Resolved Yes on 29 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 47.7%. Yes opened at 61% on 24 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 94 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61% on 24 Jul 2026 and the lowest 8.8% on 27 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 24.5% on 25 Jul 2026. $19.54K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 30, 6:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 94 points, 24 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 61.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 47.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TheWindKnowsmyName | No | 2.66K |
| libratus1 | No | 418.44 |
| lukas11 | No | 336.96 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | No | 122.85 |
| akunai | No | 100 |
| Rr55 | No | 85.13 |
| m33zy | No | 70 |
| Golden Meteor CFE1 | No | 50 |
| 0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13 | No | 32.05 |
| 86fgh | No | 30.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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