Analytics
Yes is at 5.9%, down 10 points from 16% when the market opened on 13 Dec 2025.
The high was 18.3% on 18 Jun 2026 and the low 0.6% on 5 May 2026. A week ago Yes was at 5.3%; a month ago, 7.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 18.1% on 16 Jun 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$1.37K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $165.66K since listing. The order book holds $46.19K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.32K bought Yes and $8.82K bought No; the largest was a $1.21K buy of No at 90.9¢.
The largest Yes position is oppsniper with 8.8K shares; the largest No position is RewardsMafia with 8K. Ten wallets hold 70.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 8, 2:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 299 points · 13 Dec 2025 – 8 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | 16.0% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 5.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| oppsniper | Yes | 8.79K |
| RewardsMafia | No | 8.03K |
| 1881aa | No | 5.97K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| wahahao |
| Yes |
| 5.44K |
| nillion | Yes | 5.28K |
| meeps | Yes | 4.6K |
| PeggyGou | No | 4.12K |
| supertrader777 | Yes | 2.51K |
| phdcapital | No | 2.5K |
| wtom | No | 1.76K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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