Analytics
Yes is at 11.6%, down 14 points from 25.5% when the market opened on 13 Dec 2025.
The high was 25.5% on 13 Dec 2025 and the low 0.7% on 16 May 2026. A week ago Yes was at 11.2%; a month ago, 14.8%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 19.8% on 16 Jun 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$59 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $140.99K since listing. The order book holds $43.45K, with a 0.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $7.03K bought Yes and $13.66K bought No; the largest was a $1.62K sell of No at 86.8¢.
The largest Yes position is meeps with 8.9K shares; the largest No position is RewardsMafia with 11.8K. Ten wallets hold 59.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 18, 4:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 299 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 17 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | 25.5% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 14.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RewardsMafia | No | 11.78K |
| meeps | Yes | 8.89K |
| nillion | Yes | 7.24K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| supertrader777 |
| Yes |
| 5.03K |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 4.96K |
| tradexplorer | No | 4.33K |
| PeggyGou | No | 4.31K |
| 1881aa | No | 3.79K |
| 0xniccc | Yes | 3.14K |
| imjustalarp | No | 3.04K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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