Analytics
Paper trading
Yes is at 89.5%, up 40 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 27 Dec 2025.
The high was 92.5% on 23 Sep 2026 and the low 15.5% on 27 Mar 2026. A week ago Yes was at 83.5%; a month ago, 86%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 64.5% on 28 Dec 2025.
It is one of 10 markets under “Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$626.21 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $995.64K since listing. The order book holds $59.07K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $70.18K bought Yes and $7.09K bought No; the largest was a $12K buy of Yes at 80.0¢.
The largest Yes position is ASteroide with 27.6K shares; the largest No position is AllByMyseIf with 32.4K. Ten wallets hold 51.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 14, 1:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 276 points, 27 Dec 2025 – 14 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 49.5% |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 89.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AllByMyseIf | No | 32.44K |
| Hilarious-Lot | No | 30K |
| ASteroide | Yes | 27.59K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| tradexplorer |
| No |
| 25K |
| sansui1 | No | 20.62K |
| hose | Yes | 20.22K |
| deltasniper | No | 15K |
| manekineko | Yes | 12.8K |
| Ivankkkk7 | Yes | 12K |
| Same-Inglenook | Yes | 9.79K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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