Analytics
Yes is at 57.5%, up 34 points from 24% when the market opened on 13 Dec 2025.
Across the 295 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 68% on 25 Sep 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 12 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 55.5%; a month before, 58.5%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 42% on 29 Aug 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$4.81K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $851.26K since listing. The order book holds $69.72K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $104.25K bought Yes and $32.83K bought No; the largest was a $14.58K buy of Yes at 62.4¢.
The largest Yes position is manekineko with 35K shares; the largest No position is Premarbet618 with 126.3K. Ten wallets hold 44.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 295 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | 24.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 57.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Premarbet618 | No | 126.32K |
| manekineko | Yes | 35K |
| jumpsquad | Yes | 29.35K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| VARBeliever |
| Yes |
| 26.6K |
| odsowner | No | 23.82K |
| tradexplorer | No | 22.29K |
| gatonekki | No | 21.41K |
| StasPanda | No | 20K |
| probablynothing | Yes | 17.58K |
| AllByMyseIf | No | 16.97K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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