Analytics
Yes is at 98.5%, up 28 points from 70.5% when the market opened on 5 Apr 2026.
Across the 184 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.6% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 70.5% on 5 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 98.4%; a month before, 98.5%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 75% on 10 Aug 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$82.88K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $21.51K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $23.76K bought Yes and $664.76 bought No; the largest was a $5.27K buy of Yes at 98.0¢.
The largest Yes position is jjjclv6 with 6.7K shares; the largest No position is VARBeliever with 13.8K. Ten wallets hold 72.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:15 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 184 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | 70.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 98.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| VARBeliever | No | 13.78K |
| jjjclv6 | Yes | 6.68K |
| marsresting | Yes | 6.67K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| twe2nty |
| No |
| 5.6K |
| lucky57 | Yes | 5.48K |
| polca | No | 4.73K |
| balthazar | Yes | 2.67K |
| GeorgiaTripMoney | No | 2.59K |
| purplegatto | No | 2.29K |
| manekineko | Yes | 1.4K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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