
Yes is at 83%, up 18 points from 65% when the market opened on 14 Oct 2026.
Across the 12 daily closes on record from 14 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 83% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 65% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 77%. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 75.5% on 16 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?”.
$606.92 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $26.05K since listing. The order book holds $22.07K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 151 trades, $11.72K bought Yes and $973.3 bought No; the largest was a $4.74K buy of Yes at 77.8¢.
The largest Yes position is yen4u with 7K shares; the largest No position is BigRabbit with 2.5K. Ten wallets hold 89.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 30 Nov 2026, 34 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 14 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 60%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 65.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 83.0% |
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
| eCash |
| No |
| 2.1K |
| Umaroth | No | 1.77K |
| PavtheGreat | No | 1.08K |
| JoeyJokesAlot | No | 990.01 |
| M2sx92kljs42 | Yes | 857.42 |
| DerDon | No | 799.98 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 446.37 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-yemen-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt
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