Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 39.5% on 27 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2026 to 2 Oct 2026, the highest close was 39.5% on 27 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 12% on 29 Aug 2026. $55.99K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 27 Aug 2026 – 2 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | 39.5% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| groth | Yes | 5.67K |
| 8dcc906a9b | Yes | 1.85K |
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 1.11K |
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-reissues-iran-oil-sales-sanction-relief-byptptpt-20260708142359046
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Yes | 1.06K |
| laccsv2 | Yes | 904 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 381.21 |
| cd30gfu530p0 | Yes | 346.86 |
| Solar Vector 84E9 | Yes | 216.72 |
| meagainsttheworld | Yes | 187.5 |
| Rapid Sphinx 6950 | Yes | 170.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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