Analytics
Yes is at 3%, down 46 points from 49% when the market opened on 8 Sep 2026.
Across the 48 daily closes on record from 8 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 8 Sep 2026 and the lowest 3% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11%; a month before, 27.5%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 17.5% on 9 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?”.
$52.04 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $36.94K since listing. The order book holds $23.18K, with a 3.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 379 trades, $2.27K bought Yes and $11.53K bought No; the largest was a $2.3K buy of No at 90.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Violet Vector B233 with 2.7K shares; the largest No position is spamburglar with 4.2K. Ten wallets hold 66% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 8 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Sep 2026 | 49.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| spamburglar | No | 4.24K |
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 2.66K |
| groth | Yes | 2.28K |
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-reissues-iran-oil-sales-sanction-relief-byptptpt-20260708142359046
| Fr566 |
| No |
| 1.06K |
| enrico-vasaio | No | 1.01K |
| nonkenny90 | No | 932 |
| paddaa | Yes | 862.16 |
| Skinny-Class | Yes | 600 |
| Kris-Future | No | 530.75 |
| Marco-Rubio | No | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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