Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

Across the 12 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 4.2% on 14 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.8%.

Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?”. No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate leads at 67%; No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate is at 30.8%.

$893.01 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $59.2K since listing. The order book holds $31.77K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 273 trades, $752.48 bought Yes and $8.13K bought No; the largest was a $1.92K buy of No at 95.9¢.

The largest Yes position is -FROMTHEFUTURE- with 2.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 5.9K. Ten wallets hold 87.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.

Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.