Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

Across the 15 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 34.4% on 18 Oct 2026 and the lowest 27.4% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 29%.

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate ranks second of the 4 outcomes in “Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?”. No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate leads at 67%; Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate is at 1.1%.

$2.19K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $57.21K since listing. The order book holds $33.45K, with a 3.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 445 trades, $8.01K bought Yes and $6.68K bought No; the largest was a $2.17K buy of Yes at 33.3¢.

The largest Yes position is balthazar with 3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 5.9K. Ten wallets hold 94.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.

Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.