Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

Across the 14 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 69.1% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 58.4% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 67.5%.

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?”, ahead of No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate at 30.4%.

$712.56 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $66.47K since listing. The order book holds $31.76K, with a 2.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $16.53K bought Yes and $2.15K bought No; the largest was a $11.97K buy of Yes at 58.8¢.

The largest Yes position is aenews2 with 3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 5.9K. Ten wallets hold 92.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.

Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.