Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 14 points from 23% when the market opened on 10 Mar 2026.
Across the 205 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40.5% on 9 Jul 2026 and the lowest 2.7% on 15 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.8%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 11% on 10 Jul 2026.
It is one of 11 markets under “Ethereal FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$9.88K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $366.39, with a 8.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 144 trades, $1.99K bought Yes and $1.12K bought No; the largest was a $1.92K buy of Yes at 42.0¢.
The largest Yes position is kirwiswiemi with 4.8K shares; the largest No position is Risto with 5K. Ten wallets hold 99.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 205 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 23.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Risto | No | 5K |
| kirwiswiemi | Yes | 4.79K |
| Keen Falcon D40C | Yes | 208.53 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ethereal-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-774
| USERgm |
| No |
| 149.6 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 123.43 |
| pppnn | Yes | 72.73 |
| SuperTests | No | 57.96 |
| vonhalen | No | 48 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 47.68 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 45.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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