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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Yes | sell | 1.66K | $0.620 | $1.03K | Nov 2, 2025 |
 |
| sell |
| 10.03K |
| $0.188 |
| $1.89K |
| Nov 2, 2025 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 10.03K | $0.201 | $2.01K | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 9.63K | $0.174 | $1.67K | Oct 29, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?No | sell | 4.04K | $0.521 | $2.1K | Oct 29, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30?No | buy | 954.46 | $0.190 | $181.35 | Oct 27, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Yes | buy | 159.1 | $0.350 | $55.68 | Oct 22, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?No | sell | 4.7K | $0.119 | $558.73 | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?No | buy | 3.74K | $0.160 | $597.74 | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?No | buy | 966.64 | $0.150 | $145 | Oct 17, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 10.21K | $0.032 | $326.47 | Oct 16, 2025 |
 Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?Yes | sell | 1.77K | $0.106 | $187.99 | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?No | sell | 994.59 | $0.194 | $192.79 | Oct 16, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 6K | $0.023 | $138.5 | Oct 16, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 6K | $0.100 | $600 | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?No | buy | 1.22K | $0.490 | $597.8 | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 10K | $0.033 | $330 | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 16K | $0.038 | $608 | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 13.56K | $0.037 | $501.62 | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025?Yes | sell | 4.71K | $0.033 | $154.12 | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025Yes | sell | 3.6K | $0.019 | $66.96 | Oct 2, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 3.18K | $0.060 | $190.66 | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?No | buy | 2.86K | $0.910 | $2.6K | Sep 27, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?No | buy | 1.77K | $0.890 | $1.58K | Sep 27, 2025 |
 US government shutdown by October 1?No | sell | 1.68K | $0.290 | $486.45 | Sep 26, 2025 |
| US government shutdown by October 1?No | buy | 77.41 | $0.310 | $24 | Sep 26, 2025 |
| US government shutdown by October 1?No | buy | 1.4K | $0.320 | $448 | Sep 26, 2025 |
| US government shutdown by October 1?No | buy | 200 | $0.310 | $62 | Sep 26, 2025 |
 TikTok sale announced by September 30?No | sell | 2.36K | $0.890 | $2.1K | Sep 26, 2025 |
| TikTok sale announced by September 30?No | buy | 2.36K | $0.520 | $1.23K | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025?Yes | buy | 4.71K | $0.064 | $300 | Sep 23, 2025 |
| Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025Yes | buy | 3.6K | $0.083 | $300 | Sep 23, 2025 |
| Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?Yes | buy | 1.77K | $0.169 | $300 | Sep 23, 2025 |
| Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?No | buy | 994.59 | $0.302 | $300 | Sep 23, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?No | buy | 4.36K | $0.460 | $2.01K | Sep 22, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?No | buy | 1.04K | $0.450 | $469.86 | Sep 22, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 3.18K | $0.100 | $317.77 | Sep 22, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?No | buy | 1K | $0.436 | $436.42 | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 5K | $0.200 | $1K | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 535.07 | $0.190 | $101.66 | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?No | buy | 563.62 | $0.570 | $321.26 | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?No | buy | 231.1 | $0.780 | $180.26 | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?No | buy | 49.25 | $0.770 | $37.92 | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?No | buy | 800 | $0.580 | $464 | Sep 11, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 4.41K | $0.143 | $631.85 | Sep 10, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?No | buy | 671.46 | $0.640 | $429.73 | Sep 10, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?No | buy | 500.99 | $0.630 | $315.62 | Sep 10, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?No | buy | 511.18 | $0.720 | $368.05 | Sep 10, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?No | sell | 344.06 | $0.280 | $96.34 | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?No | sell | 773.51 | $0.398 | $307.66 | Sep 9, 2025 |