
Resolved No on 29 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 20 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 132 daily closes on record from 20 Jun 2025 to 29 Oct 2025, the highest close was 52% on 1 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 27 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 35.5% on 2 Aug 2025. $46.05M traded over the market's life.
592 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 31, 12:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 132 points, 20 Jun 2025 – 29 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Jun 2025 | 47.5% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 48.52M |
| LlamaEnjoyer | Yes | 2.49M |
| Basic-Chow | Yes | 1.55M |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2025 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 28 - 29, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october
| Yes |
| 870.31K |
| flex12 | Yes | 757.95K |
| LongOnWars | Yes | 727.58K |
| 1nsider | Yes | 453.15K |
| Lpholdin | Yes | 427.18K |
| Vliegen | Yes | 402.05K |
| abcdportfolio | Yes | 241.39K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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