US government shutdown by October 1?

Resolved

Yes, settled Oct 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$13.5M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Oct 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 1 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.6%. Yes opened at 15% on 3 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 98.6% on 1 Oct 2025 and the lowest 15% on 3 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 98.6% on 1 Oct 2025. $13.49M traded over the market's life.

542 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:36 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 3 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Trader8777	No	275.34K
Wan-Conspirator	No	198.7K
PollyRoobie	No	126.17K
Ace.Faw	No	103.78K

10 of 542 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by October 1, 2025, 11:59 PM. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).