
Resolved Yes on 29 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 19%. Yes opened at 24% on 8 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 114 daily closes on record from 8 Jul 2025 to 29 Oct 2025, the highest close was 73.5% on 10 Oct 2025 and the lowest 15% on 15 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 49.5% on 25 Oct 2025. $1.92M traded over the market's life.
635 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 31, 12:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 114 points, 8 Jul 2025 – 29 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | 24.0% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 19.0% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kup'yans'k-Pivdennyi railroad station located on Pryvokzalna vulytsia by October 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+train+station.jpeg Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/9Pt8PPbQvWLerHLr6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
| No |
| 8.86K |
| CrowdOracle | No | 5.9K |
| pamps | No | 5.53K |
| GayPride | No | 5.23K |
| ololololololololo | No | 5.07K |
| Jubilant-Songbird | No | 4.27K |
| SteveRay | No | 3.76K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kupiansk-by
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