Analytics
Resolved Yes on 29 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 82.5%. Yes opened at 77.5% on 22 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 22 Oct 2025 to 29 Oct 2025, the highest close was 83% on 25 Oct 2025 and the lowest 74% on 23 Oct 2025. $214.92K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 31, 12:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 22 Oct 2025 – 29 Oct 2025, chart shows 70%–85%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2025 | 77.5% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 82.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pryingrombus | No | 20K |
| moolah | No | 11.22K |
| tsihkodiives | No | 6.83K |
| MadetoTrade | No | 2.94K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kup'yans'k-Pivdennyi railroad station located on Pryvokzalna vulytsia by November 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+train+station.jpeg Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/9Pt8PPbQvWLerHLr6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
| ff189 | No | 2K |
| Pippis | No | 1.27K |
| kkkdrake | No | 1.04K |
| Dkarak | No | 1K |
| camoha | No | 553.57 |
| FabulousCar | No | 500 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kupiansk-by
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