Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 30 | $0.923 | $29.36 | +$1.66 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.930 | $9.3 | Apr 19, 2026 |
 |
Michaus is a public Polymarket wallet indexed by Vultax, ranked #2,564,408 in the Observed 80K cohort. As of the latest observation the record shows -$90.71 observed lifetime PnL, 117 distinct markets, 50 resolved positions, a 90.0% win rate on resolved positions.
Rank, total PnL and observed volume come from one accepted snapshot of Polymarket's public leaderboard, so they are consistent with each other and with every other profile in the cohort. Open positions, the chart and recent trades are separate live observations with their own timestamps. A figure Vultax could not observe is left out rather than shown as zero, and nothing on this page is investment advice or a return forecast.
Public profile: polymarket.com/profile/0xe184146a5f9756dc5046a6a1f64efaef5e3a920a
Nine stops, one per figure. Each says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads for this wallet in the accepted snapshot.
Position in Vultax's Observed 80K cohort: 80,000 public Polymarket wallets ordered by observed lifetime profit in one accepted leaderboard snapshot. A rank is only comparable inside that snapshot.
Observed lifetime profit and loss for the wallet, realized and unrealized combined, as reported in the accepted snapshot. It is a record of what happened, not a forecast of what comes next.
| Yes |
| 240 |
| $0.077 |
| $24 |
| +$5.52 |
 Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 20 | $0.904 | $19.55 | +$1.47 |
| Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? | No | 12.08 | $0.669 | $11.84 | +$3.76 |
| Will Matt Carroll win The Bachelorette Season 22? | No | 10 | $0.991 | $9.95 | +$0.04 |
 Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 80 | $0.026 | $3.52 | +$1.44 |
 Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 80 | $0.032 | $3.44 | +$0.92 |
 Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 20 | $0.090 | $1.5 | -$0.3 |
 Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 70 | $0.015 | $1.09 | +$0.04 |
 Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 50 | $0.020 | $0.63 | -$0.38 |
 Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 23.26 | $0.430 | $0.51 | -$9.49 |
 Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 20 | $0.034 | $0.45 | -$0.23 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 20 | $0.096 | $0.45 | -$1.47 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 20 | $0.080 | $0.43 | -$1.17 |
 Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 20 | $0.025 | $0.23 | -$0.27 |
 Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 50 | $0.023 | $0.23 | -$0.93 |
 Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 30 | $0.046 | $0.2 | -$1.19 |
 Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 20 | $0.011 | $0.03 | -$0.19 |
 Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 20 | $0.015 | $0.03 | -$0.27 |
| buy |
| 12.01 |
| $0.824 |
| $9.89 |
| Apr 19, 2026 |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes | buy | 23.26 | $0.430 | $10 | Apr 19, 2026 |
 Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?Yes | sell | 144.2 | $0.420 | $60.56 | Apr 19, 2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?Yes | buy | 136.9 | $0.330 | $45.18 | Apr 19, 2026 |
 MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?Yes | buy | 67.14 | $0.745 | $50 | Apr 19, 2026 |
 Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?Yes | buy | 153.85 | $0.650 | $100 | Apr 19, 2026 |
 Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?Yes | buy | 13.75 | $0.700 | $9.62 | Apr 19, 2026 |
 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.660 | $13.2 | Apr 19, 2026 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?No | buy | 28.94 | $0.560 | $16.21 | Apr 19, 2026 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.994 | $9.94 | Apr 19, 2026 |
| Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?Yes | buy | 164.51 | $0.077 | $12.67 | Apr 19, 2026 |
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.026 | $1.04 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.031 | $1.24 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 70 | $0.015 | $1.05 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.020 | $1 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.023 | $1.15 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.026 | $1.04 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.032 | $1.28 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.046 | $1.38 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.096 | $1.92 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.080 | $1.6 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.090 | $1.8 | Apr 18, 2026 |
 Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes | buy | 361.12 | $0.600 | $216.67 | Apr 18, 2026 |
 Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.185 | $3.7 | Apr 18, 2026 |
 Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.140 | $2.8 | Apr 18, 2026 |
 Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.023 | $0.46 | Apr 18, 2026 |
 Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?No | sell | 20 | $0.998 | $19.96 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No | sell | 10 | $0.920 | $9.2 | Mar 19, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.680 | $13.6 | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?No | sell | 20 | $0.978 | $19.57 | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No | sell | 20 | $0.984 | $19.68 | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 12.03 | $0.460 | $5.53 | Mar 17, 2026 |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 20 | $0.880 | $17.6 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 20 | $0.961 | $19.22 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 20 | $0.910 | $18.2 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 20 | $0.550 | $11 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 10 | $0.970 | $9.7 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No | sell | 9.99 | $0.820 | $8.19 | Mar 17, 2026 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: Elon EditionYes | sell | 11.1 | $0.986 | $10.94 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 20 | $0.820 | $16.4 | Mar 8, 2026 |
 Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 149.87 | $0.120 | $17.98 | Mar 8, 2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 20 | $0.770 | $15.4 | Mar 8, 2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?No | sell | 20 | $0.990 | $19.8 | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 26?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.970 | $19.4 | Dec 26, 2025 |
 Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?No | buy | 20 | $0.820 | $16.4 | Dec 26, 2025 |
 Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 70 | $0.291 | $20.4 | Dec 26, 2025 |
 Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?No | sell | 50 | $0.716 | $35.81 | Dec 26, 2025 |
| Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 50 | $0.670 | $33.5 | Dec 26, 2025 |
 No airdrop in 2025?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.085 | $1.7 | Dec 26, 2025 |
Lifetime dollar volume the wallet has traded in the same snapshot. Profit read next to volume shows how much return each traded dollar earned.
Value of the wallet's open positions at the profile observation, priced at current marks. Zero can mean the wallet holds nothing open, or that no open value was observed.
Share of resolved positions that closed in profit within the available sample. A high win rate with a small profit usually means many small wins and a few large losses.
Realized winning markets summed against realized losing markets. The split shows whether profit came from many small wins or from a few big calls.
Total losses as a share of total gains in the available sample. Lower means less of the profit was given back; a value above 100% means the wallet lost more than it won.
Distinct markets the wallet has traded, and how many of its positions have resolved. Breadth tells you whether a record is one lucky call or a habit.
How many provider fill rows this view loaded and when the snapshot was taken. Vultax stamps every figure with its observation time instead of presenting an old number as live.