Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 15% on 17 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 339 daily closes on record from 17 Oct 2025 to 9 Oct 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 22.2% on 8 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.7% on 9 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 22.2% on 8 Feb 2026. $895.47K traded over the market's life.
316 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 10, 10:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 339 points, 17 Oct 2025 – 9 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2025 | 15.0% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 468.61K |
| Anjun | Yes | 57.56K |
| Tight-Nourishment | Yes | 43.5K |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139
| 0xdc3E831cad | Yes | 30.47K |
| Fearless-Misnomer | Yes | 30.21K |
| imnice | Yes | 27.49K |
| aenews2 | Yes | 25.63K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 14.65K |
| sciuboi | Yes | 13.89K |
| Elias.Thornwell | Yes | 10.43K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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