Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 88.9%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 14 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 14 Dec 2025 to 30 Dec 2025, the highest close was 31.4% on 18 Dec 2025 and the lowest 6.8% on 28 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 15.6% on 21 Dec 2025. $3.95M traded over the market's life.
524 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 14 Dec 2025 – 30 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Dec 2025 | 14.5% |
| 30 Dec 2025 | 11.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 925.54K |
| Maybemiska | Yes | 30.81K |
| AllByMyseIf | Yes | 25.82K |
| Royal Orbit 8A71 | Yes | 24K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the next date Lighter performs an airdrop on. If Lighter launches a memecoin and performs an airdrop of that token within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Lighter, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-day-will-the-lighter-airdrop-be
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